The NBA Discovers Parity

Mark the date, May 30th 2009, the day when the NBA escaped predictability. Of the three major professional American sports (I don’t think anyone counts hockey anymore), basketball has long been the one with the least drama regarding which teams would end each respective season on top. This is primarily due to the NBA being a star driven league more than the others. Baseball and football simply have too many players, too many important positions on the field, and too high of a luck factor (in how a single play can affect the outcome of a game or season) for any one player to emerge the predominant factor in a team’s success. Don’t believe me? Next time you’re in Vegas, try to accurately predict every NFL playoff team for the upcoming season. If you get better than 8 out of 12, I’ll happily relinquish the keys to my car.

Throughout its history the best players in the NBA have won, a trend even more pronounced in recent decades. In fact during the past thirty years only one team has emerged victorious without the services of a top 3 player (the 2004 Detroit Pistons). This trend allows fans to see the best of the best compete for the top prize, but it also makes the general outcome seem routine, which is part of the reason so many prefer college basketball to the pro game. We usually can predict every playoff team by early December, so when I pondered creating a pool for the 2009NBA playoffs, I realized any attempt would be futile. Nearly every bracket would ultimately look the same, unless as fate would have it, some genius had the foresight to pit Orlando against the Lakers.

Nobody who matters wanted this match up. Certainly not David Stern, who must’ve had a near heart attack when he realized the potential for a Magic/Nuggets finals existed not so long ago. He surely had been salivating over the all-but -guaranteed Lakers/Cavaliers finals when he saw the playoff breakdown in late April. At worst, Kevin Garnett makes a full recovery and basketball fans get round two of the Celtics/Lakers. At best he gets to promote Kobe Bryant vs. Lebron James, a heavyweight battle of the league’s preeminent players, which despite the aforementioned history of star battles, seldom happens. The last time the NBA finals boasted the league’s two best players was 1984 when Larry Bird’s Celtics faced Magic Johnson’s Lakers, and I’m not 100% convinced Magic was even there yet (his best years were still to come). But in 2009, there was no debate that Kobe and Lebron were better than everybody else. One brief observation: by year’s end I suspect 75% of fans (and 95% outside of California) had arrived at the conclusion that Lebron was the better player, but he will be watching Kobe and the finals on television. Just food for thought . . .

The presence of Orlando in the finals may also be somewhat disappointing to Kobe, who surely would’ve relished the challenge of going toe-to-toe with King James for seven games. But although that dream match up will have to wait, the pressure is squarely on the Lakers. They are considered the strong favorite nationally (a mistake) and as Bill Simmons wrote recently, Kobe’s legacy hangs in the balance. He will never have a better opportunity to win a title without Shaq than he does right now. Last year the media wave from Los Angeles somehow propelled the Lakers into the position of favorite over the Celtics, who were undoubtedly the better and hungrier team. (see my Nostradamus-like post before last year’s finals: http://mygirlfriendssleeping.blogspot.com/2008/06/17-reasons-celtics-will-beat-lakers.html). In 2009 however, L.A. has no excuses. If they don’t perform at the top of their game, they will lose to a young, overachieving Magic team that plays without a care in the world. This lattermost personality trait is Orlando’s greatest weapon.

The pressure of being favored has never affected them during this playoff run, because it hasn’t existed. True, some people did predict they’d defeat an injury depleted Celtics squad in round two, but just as many predicted advancement for the defending champs despite their limitations. Orlando kept pushing back, especially when they were considered finished (see game six of that series). They kept shooting threes, kept rebounding, kept running, kept defending, and continued treating every game like a pickup contest. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what the deciding game of that series looked like. But even after securing a spot in the Eastern Conference finals, few thought they’d compete with the Cavs, despite beating them twice during the regular season. Cleveland hadn’t been tested at all throughout the first two rounds, was dominating the competition, and had the most spectacular player on the planet leading the charge. Only Charles Barkley had the courage to predict a Magic victory, and he was proven right.

The Magic onslaught (and conference finals as a whole) was so intriguing that even T began watching games while I was working late at the store, feeding me updates by way of text. She learned a lot about the sport with each successive game, although her game and player terminology stills needs some work. On one occasion with only seconds to go in the Nuggets/Lakers series, she proclaimed “Carmelo Anthony sounds like a Soprano’s character.” During another contest, she asked me what a ‘mystery throw’ was. I explained that the proper pronunciation was ‘missed free throw.’ She also agreed that Stan Van Gundy certainly does not look like a basketball coach. She figured his name was Vinny and remarked how he looked like he should work in a pizza parlor. I challenge anyone to contest that description. I think T’s now as excited as I am for game one tonight, which is awesome, because we won’t need to flip back and forth to “Jon and Kate Plus 8.”

So what do I expect from the finals? I’m not quite sure and that’s part of the pleasure for a change. We all knew Michael Jordan’s Bulls were going to beat whichever inferior Western Conference team emerged throughout the 90s. It was set in stone that Tim Duncan’s Spurs were going to beat any weak Eastern Conference team during their run of four titles in nine years. But this time, there really isn’t any conventional wisdom to fall back on. I’ve seen Orlando get knocked down and come roaring back repeatedly. I’ve seen them shoot Lebron right out of the playoffs (Do you all realize how close that series came to being a sweep for Orlando?) They are decently coached (though SVG is the ultimate Jekyll/Hyde personality of the league; you never know if he’ll be brilliant or horrid), they have very big wing players who can shoot (Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus), they have solid point guard play (Rafer Alston & returning starter Jameer Nelson), and the most dominant big man in the league (Dwight Howard, who should he win his 1st title at age 23 immediately leaps to top 5 status if he isn’t there already). By the way it makes me just a little sick that everyone reading this is older than Howard by about five years. I’d kill to be a 6’ 11” black basketball player. I suspect several players on Orlando are just happy to be there, which fits into their whole loose mentality. They seem to take the game as it comes to them. If their shots aren’t falling, they still have Howard to keep them in the game. If their shots are falling, they can’t be beat.

I honestly don’t know what the game plan is if I’m Phil Jackson. Because of Orlando’s shooting prowess, he has no alternative to going single coverage on Howard with Andrew Bynum, who while a big body, isn’t nearly experienced or tough enough to stop him. Amazingly, Kendrick Perkins may now be the only big man in the league with the attitude and body to keep DH under control. Lewis and Turkoglu are going to force Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom to guard them way outside the paint on defense, which puts even more pressure on Laker guards Derek Fisher and Trevor Ariza to prevent Orlando’s little men from penetrating. If I were Phil, I’d start the series with Kobe guarding Turkoglu. Much of the Magic offense runs through the flopping foreigner, who often acts as a point forward for Orlando and if Kobe can keep him 25 feet from the basket and pressure the ball, that will take the Magic out of their rhythm. On offense L.A. must attack Howard every chance they get, since he is prone to early foul trouble. Gasol and Odom are both talented, a common description for the two forwards that I’m starting to believe means soft. Gasol has been really good thus far, but if Howard blocks his first shot attempt, he may regress. Both Laker forwards disappeared in last years’ finals, forcing Kobe to carry the entire load. And if Lebron was unable to beat Orlando with that approach, I doubt Kobe can. If I’m Van Gundy, I’m posting pictures of every Laker player other than Kobe in the locker room and screaming “Don’t let THEM beat us.” If Kobe averages 40 in the series, but Orlando shoots that mark from beyond the arc and dominates the glass, all the individual praise won’t matter.

Home court belongs to L.A., but as was the case during the last two rounds, Orlando doesn’t seem phased playing on the road. Cleveland was supposedly infallible at home and Orlando quickly stole home court advantage. In each of their last two deciding games, they blew out the opposing team. And the ridiculous 2-3-2 format works in Orlando’s favor. If they steal one of the first two in L.A. and then take two at home, they have the chance to end it in game six. It’s a terrible, terrible format that exists primarily due to travel considerations. These are grown men who fly back and forth across the country for 82 games all season long. Do the extra couple of flights really make that much of a difference? In this format the Magic, who are supposedly the team without home court advantage, play three of the 1st five games on their home court. That’s the series folks. Winning one more on the road (and having two cracks at it) if you’re a team with a mentality like Orlando, isn’t all that big an obstacle at all.

The Lakers are good, really good in fact, and have been tested during the playoffs, but it is possible to be overly tested, especially if you’re an older team. I hated that it took L.A. seven games to eliminate the Houston Rockets minus Yao and Tracy McGrady. Denver gave them all they could handle in the Western Conference finals. Both teams had physical, versatile forwards (Ron Artest, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, Chris Andersen) who gave the Lakers fits. Orlando offers more of the same, but with better shooting and the best rebounder and defensive big man in basketball. And if L.A. struggles to find a consistent rhythm early, I can easily see Kobe going into autopilot shooting mode with his legacy in the balance. I love watching Mr. Bryant, but I’m not sure I’d want to play with him either. Still, I’m not prepared to bet against him, considering Orlando has no single defender to bother him. If this sounds like a cop-out without a real prediction, it is, and it falls right in line with the way the NBA playoffs have played out.

Ok, I obviously can’t close on that note. If this series goes to game seven, I think L.A. holds on, because I don’t see Kobe losing a title that close to his grasp. But I don’t think this one’s getting that far. You heard it here first . . . Orlando in six!