NBA 2009 Predictions

I cried last night and it's all Paul Pierce's fault. My struggles as a Celtic's fan through the years have been well documented. I've been loyal and patient and had no doubt watching last night's opening ceremonies would prove a poignant experience. Even seeing the anonymous assistant coaches and trainers get their rings brought a proud smile to my face. They called Doc and the role players, followed by Ray and KG. I applauded as if they were my kids and had just been accepted into the Ivy League. Still, I had no intention of losing my manhood until the camera captured Pierce, who was overwhelmed by the moment. I figured if Pierce was gonna cry that gave me the green light. With Jerry Goldsmith's booming "Air Force One" score playing in the background (am I a dork for knowing that?), they raised banner 17 to the hallowed rafters.

I must've made a dozen phone calls to friends and family during that five-minute span, though I'm convinced you must be at least twenty to fully appreciate what it means for your home team to win a championship. I realized this when my youngest brother, so fortunate to attend the game, texted me to ask if I thought goofy announcer Willie May was secretly banging all the celtic dancers. In all fairness, he later raised a valid question in wondering why a championship team couldn't find a suitable replacement for Lucky, the most irritating mascot on the planet. Anyway, everything was going beautifully for me until I discovered Reggie 'nut-sack' Miller was part of the TNT crew calling the game. My teeth clenched when I heard his voice, and that was before he called out Pierce for having had a "Notebook" moment, referring to the sappy, chick-flick. If I were there in person I would've strangled him and watched his girly legs flop as he gasped for air. How can someone so insignificant stir such a violent reaction from me three years after his retirement? It's a good psychology question. I'll just have to find appeasement in knowing that overrated fuck-stick never won anything and as such has no idea what he's talking about (I'll be right back. I need to down a shot and do 20 jumping jacks . . . SERENITY NOW . . . Ok, I feel better).

The good news is that Boston could very well find itself in the same position in 2009And while it won't be easy, I'm not sure it will be as difficult as many prognosticators say. Last night was a good first test, and the game went about as expected. It was close the whole way, the third quarter defense being the difference for the C's. Boston also had enough contributions off the bench to compensate for poor offensive games by Garnett and Allen. As usual, Lebron James didn't have that luxury. Yes, Cleveland added scoring point guard Mo Williams in the offseason, but they should've been far more proactive. The fact is if you combined the two rosters into a single starting line-up, James would be the only Cleveland representative. And on nights when he doesn't have his "A" game (last night Pierce outplayed him), it's gonna be really tough for the Cavs to beat anyone good. Fortunately for them, Lebron only has about five poor games a year. Cleveland gave Boston a harder time than any other playoff opponent last spring. Barring injuries, one them will reach the NBA finals in 2009.

Orlando isn't ready. Neither is Philly, Atlanta, or Chicago, despite top draft pick Derrick Rose. Miami's success will depend on Dwayne Wade's health and Michael Beasley's transition from the college game. They could contend and they could miss the playoffs. Washington doesn't have enough to overcome another injury to Gibert Arenas. Detroit probably has one playoff push left, but more than any other team in the East, they needed to retool. They should've tried to get something for Rasheed Wallace while they could. The one legitimate spoiler could be Toronto, who throws out the scariest frontline in the conference with the addition of Jermaine O'Neal. But they'll be tougher in 2010, with Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon, and an improving Andrea Bargnani.

Out west, not all that much has changed either. The Lakers are still the favorite, with New Orleans closing. San Antonio, Phoenix and Utah are the only other teams with real title hopes. I'm not buying into the media frenzy surrounding Houston. They had an impressive 22-game winning streak last season (broken by the Celtics, thank you), but I question whether this team will ever gel. Yao Ming seems destined to be a very good center, but not the hall-of-fame franchise changer many predicted. And T-Mac gets hurt once a week. The Artest addition is intriguing, but neither McGrady or Yao is tough enough to keep him in-line. The only place he could've been kept in check would've been San Antonio. That move could've made the Spurs dominant again, but I don't blame them for passing. Dallas will once again be good enough to beat anybody on a given night, but fall short in a seven-game series. Denver's always exciting, but losing Marcus Camby to the Clippers weakened an already poor defense. Had Brand not bolted to the east L.A.'s second team could've been impressive, but an inevitable Baron Davis injury will ultimately keep them out of the playoffs. The only other team of note is Portland, who is already without Greg Oden for the next month. They have the best young nucleus in the league, but if the big guy can't play ten minutes without pulling a hammy, they might be wise to trade him now.

Here are some other predictions for the 2009 season, including award winners (runners-up in parentheses)

Most Valuable Player - Lebron James, Cleveland: Last season he submitted the best fourth place finish of my lifetime (30 points, 7 assists, nearly 8 rebounds & 2 steals a night). He's a freak of nature and he's only getting better. In last night's opener he caught an ally-oop in the paint, contorted his body in a manner that defied physics, and finished a play most players wouldn't have attempted. For years I've been saying Kobe Bryant is the best player in the world, but the torch has finally been passed. In last year's finals Boston was able to neutralize Bryant. Nobody has yet figured out how to defend James.
(Chris Paul, New Orleans)

Coach of the Year - Jerry Sloan, Utah: I have a hunch this will finally be the year for the veteran coach, in his 20th season with the Jazz. The award usually goes to a coach who's never won it before. The only possible repeat in 2009 might be Mike D'Antoni, assumming the Knicks make the playoffs, which is a long shot. Sloan has quietly kept Utah competitive for the better part of two decades, avoiding a long rebuilding effort after losing John Stockton and Karl Malone to retirement. New players buy into his system and while not flashy, they win. If Utah can finish third in the west, this is Sloan's to lose.
(Phil Jackson, L.A.L.)

Defensive Player of the Year - Kevin Garnett, Boston
(Marcus Camby, L.A.C.)
Rookie of the Year - Michael Beasley, Miami
(Derrick Rose, Chicago)
Most Improved Player - Yi Jianlian, New Jersey
(Al Horford, Atlanta)
Sixth Man of the Year - James Posey, New Orleans;
(Shane Battier, Houston)

All-NBA Teams

1st

G Chris Paul, N.O.
G Kobe Bryant, L.A.L.
C Dwight Howard, Orl
F Lebron James, Cle
F Kevin Garnett, Bos

2nd

G Steve Nash, Pho
G Dwayne Wade, Mia
C Amare Stoudemire, Pho
F Paul Pierce, Bos
F Carlos Boozer, Uta

3rd

G Deron Williams, Uta
G Allen Iverson, Den
C Tim Duncan, San
F Chris Bosh, Tor
F Dirk Nowitzki, Dal


Playoffs (Division Winners Must Get Top 3 Seeds)

Eastern Conference

Boston
Cleveland
Orlando
Detroit
Toronto
Atlanta
Miami
Philadelphia

Western Conference

Los Angeles (Lakers)
New Orleans
Utah
Phoenix
San Antonio
Dallas
Houston
Portland

Conference Finals

Boston over Cleveland (4-2)
New Orleans over Los Angeles (4-3)

Finals

Boston over New Orleans (4-2) *
MVP: Kevin Garnett

* If L.A. beats N.O., they will go on to defeat Boston in 7. I suspect they'd win a rematch with a better game plan and a healthy Andrew Bynum. But that's assumming they have enough left in the tank after battling N.O. and the winner of San Antonio/Phoenix, either of whom could be good enough to challenge L.A.

So there you have it. Yes, I'm slightly biased toward my home team. But at the same time, I just don't see anyone else knocking them off this year. The only teams within striking distance who've made significant changes play in the west. Look for the Celtics to seize another opportunity in what is realistically a three year window. Hopefully when they're receiving their second championship rings, Reggie will be long gone, having been eaten by a hungry Charles Barkley who mistook his oval-shaped head for a giant avocado.

One Final Week of Political Nonsense

The presedential election is only a week away and frankly, I can't wait for the madness to end. Maybe I've faced a stronger media onslaught in Ohio, a battleground state that has made early voting available to the public because in reality, we're among the few who matter. The voting is largely inconsequential in California, Texas, and dozens of other states where the results were decided long before the campaigns even began. But I'm sick of all the negativity, especially from McCain, who I now fondly refer to as Captain Mega-douche. His ratio of Obama-bashing remarks to self-promoting positive ideas, both in debates and in his advertisements, has been embarassing. His only legit shot at winning now rests in the hands of 21-year-old males who find Sara Palin hot in the MILF sense. Maybe that was his strategy all along. As for Palin, I get the impression she thinks she's a finalist on some sort of new age reality show. She's attractive, she does a lot of crowd waving, and she displayed some impressive shoulder moves at SNL's weekend update desk, but has she made a single, worthwhile remark since becoming McCain's running mate?

Arguably the dumbest McCain ad shows an empty oval office, followed by a voice-over claiming that Obama has never faced a crisis in the executive chair. Ummm, maybe I'm hallucinating, but I'm pretty sure McCain has never been in that position either. His funniest ads involve pork taxes. Apparently rich folks don't want to pay for poor people's bacon, and I think that's just selfish. Come to think of it, if Obama is elected will they change the name of the White House to the Black House? (Bu-dum-ching). On a more serious note though, I'm really scared for Obama should he get elected. I'd like to think the two morons recently arrested for threatening to kill Obama voters were the only two out there. Unfortunately, even in 2008 there is senseless hatred and bigotry and I'd be shocked if there weren't similar incidents in the future.

One local ad has actually pissed me off far more than anything involving the presidential campaigns. At least ten times a day, I am subjected to ads endorsing a "no" vote on issue six, regarding bringing a fully operational casino to Ohio. The message behind it warns viewers that the potential owner and operator failed to pay casino taxes in his previous state. Sorry, but I don't give a shit about whether he did or didn't. This ad reeks of uptight conservatives who view gambling as some sort of sinful vice. Just because they don't want anything to do with it doesn't give them the right to prevent others from doing so. Granted, I love poker, blackjack, and almost everything associated with casinos. But on a more practical level, I can't think of anything better for a struggling economy than the emergence of a casino (they should be in every state). They not only create thounsands of jobs, but they bring in tons of money from tourists and rich folks who otherwise might not think twice about stepping foot in this state. There's no downside here.

Amidst all the election hoopla, Oliver Stone's "W" arrived in theaters rather quietly. With Bush's reign nearing an end and focus shifting to his potential successors, it seemed an odd time to release the film. Having seen it, I wonder if the typically controversial Stone is losing his edge. He has been a vocal Bush-basher, and with commercials and late night shows playing up the comedic moments, I anticipated a great entertainment. However, the film seemed more a sincere effort to humanize Mr. Bush. By the end I felt more sorry for the president than anything else. Still, I couldn't escape the feeling that Stone had softened his take in hopes of not alienating Bush supporters, presumably to ensure bigger box-office results. On the plus side, Josh Brolin was remarkable as Bush and seems destined to earn an oscar nomination for his lead portrayal. Unfortunately, the rest of the performances were a mixed bag, which abtly describes the film. It was a decent diversion, but ultimately a lost opportunity.

In a few weeks time, Bush will seem a distant memory, as will the loser of 2008 election. It's up to you to decide the identity of our new leader. If you vote like a good citizen, Starbucks is offering a free 'Tall' coffee ('Tall' supposedly represents their 'Small,' a needless contradiction if I've ever heard one). However, if you vote for Obama, I'll throw in a $5 blackjack voucher at your casino of choice. But whichever way you go, one thing is certain . . . you're gambling.

No End In Sight

I thought they were dead. How could I not? Down 7-0 against a Tampa squad that had embarassed them since the end of game 2. Following the humiliating game 4 debacle (seriously, it looked like Wakefield had been throwing lobs for batting practice), I was humbled by that old age "Maybe it's just not our year." Being the defending champions makes this kind of pill slightly easier to swallow, as does not actively hating the team that might send yours home for the winter. But these Rays are good, really good. They're young, they play hard, they pitch well, they hit exceptionally, and they don't wear pinstripes. In a way I'm happy for their fans, being able to cheer the only worthwhile Rays team since they became a franchise. Though I'm still blown away by the story of the 12-year-old kid in Florida who got suspended from school for having a 'rayhawk,' a style he and his family, as well as many fans, cultivated in support of their team. Apparently, his school district enforces a dress code prohibiting 'distracting haircuts,' and now the poor kid can't return until his hair grows out. I don't know who's worse, the uptight administrator who suspended him or the moron who instituted the code in the first place. I'd like a few minutes along in a room with no cameras with both men to beat some sense into them.

But last night in the 7th inning, when all hope was lost, something extraordinary happened. The Sox started hitting. Lowrie scored on a single by Pedroia. Ortiz blasted a 3-run shot, narrow the gap to 7-4. The impossible had become the improbable, but they weren't done yet. In the 8th J.D. Drew homered, and suddenly it a 7-6. Then Crisp singled, driving in the tying run. Enter Masterson, who successfully held off the Rays in the top of the 9th, setting the stage for Drew. The 33-year-old lefty stepped to the plate and drove a deep single to right, allowing Youkilis to score. Ballgame. I have several friends who fell asleep or turned the game off long before the final pitch. One even dreamed the Sox had come back to win, woke up confused, turned on the tube for confirmation, and then asked his wife if he was still dreaming. Watching the mob at homeplate, I was stunned by what had transpired, though maybe I should'nt have been. The Red Sox famously came back from a 3-0 deficit to knock the Yankees out in 2004. Last year they clawed from a 3-1 whole against the Indians. Both times they made and won the World Series. While it's a little too early to predict whether they'll get there again, I would put serious money on the Sox winning game 6, as momentum has shifted in their favor. A comeback of this magnitude can be devastating to the losing team, especially in baseball, where scorching offensive streaks are not only unpredictable but unstoppable. When it's going well for the opposition, there's just not a whole lot you can do except wait it out. That's why I suspect it will take Tampa at least one more game to regain their confidence.

I was briefly tempted to say that the Rays blew it last night, but I honestly haven't felt that way even once during this series. The phrase 'blew it' (assumming we're talking about sports) insinuates that the team screwed up. In this situation the Boston bats simply came alive, dominating the late innings the same way the Rays had in earlier games. In fact this is the first series I've seen in a long time where I've put all the emphasis on the positive, not the negative. Teams are winning games, not losing them. As bad as Carlos Pena botched a poor throw from Evan Longoria in what should've been the 3rd out in the bottom of the 9th (bad bounce or not, that was inexcusable), it would've been irrelevant had Drew failed to deliver. By the way, has any Red Sox player transformed from scapegoat to hero as quickly or dramatically as Drew has? It wasn't long ago we were all complaining about his salary and "weak" mental toughness stemming from the widespread opinion that baseball isn't his whole life. But at this point, is there anybody on the Sox you'd rather have at the plate with the game on the line? Me neither.

Going into the postseason very few prognosticators picked Boston, which isn't surprising. Their 2008 season has been inconsistent to say the least . . . The Ellsbury/Crisp logjam in center field, the status of Schilling, the emergence of Lester, the Manny saga, the September surge into the playoffs, Lowell's injury, the M.V.P. campaigns for Youk and Pedroia, the obliteration of the mighty Angels, the stunt doubles who've replaced Varitek and Becket, etc... It's been a roller-coaster, culminating in a stunning game 5 victory that no one saw coming. In a year filled with uncertainty, Terry Francona has somehow kept his ship afloat. Seeing the end of Yankee stadium will ultimately make 2008 memorable for Sox fans regardless of how far the team goes. But if they can somehow muster the strength to fight past Tampa and win the World Series for the 3rd time in 5 years, this Red Sox club will be cherished for a different reason. In what could be viewed as poetic justice following last Februrary's Superbowl, the underdog will once again have prevailed.

Pava in Wonderland

So I failed my Ohio driving test. Actually, I should specify. I failed the mandatory, multiple-choice computer test required for new residents. Naturally, the Ohio driving guide neglected to inform me I'd have to take such an exam. I'd figured a sexy smile and my social security number would be enough to obtain a piece of plastic labeled 'Ohio.' Despite my reservations, the woman working at the DMV assured me the test was comprised mostly of common sense information that anyone would know. Additionally, out of the 40 total questions, I only had to answer 30 correctly. My confidence was quickly restored. After all, I've been driving for 11 years. How hard could this be? Upon passing my eye exam, I sat at my randomly assigned computer space. First question: "Who is required to wear their seatbelts in a moving vehicle?" I smiled and rolled my eyes, proudly clicking the box reading "Everyone in the vehicle." Rather than a green checkmark though, I suddenly faced a big red X. It then flashed a blinking green circle around the correct answer, "Any passenger riding in the front seat." I stared at the screen in disbelief before surveying other testtakers from afar. Was this a joke? I half expected Ashton Kutcher to run through the front door with the crew from Punk'd.

I quickly re-centered my attention and continued, only the more questions I read, the more baffled I became. You only need to leave 1 full car length between your car and the one in front of you? Motorcycle drivers over the age of 18 don't have to wear helmets? A yellow light means go faster? Ok, I made the last one up, but based on the other answers, it didn't seem like too much of a stretch. After 14 questions I was cruising along at a 50% rate. Following question 27, the test ended abruptly. Feeling pathetic and confused, I next had to suffer the indignity of watching a wrinkly old man with a badge on his shirt shake his head while announcing "This isn't good." I was told I could retake the test in 24 hours, though not later that day, only adding to the sustained nonsense I'd experienced since walking through the front door. Would it be cheating to sit down and take it again? I guess they figured if a full day passed, I might do even more poorly the second time. I took my free study guide and sat impatiently, waiting for my girlfriend to finish. She did better, geting all the way to question 38 before failing.

On the way out we laughed at the sheer stupidity of the entire experience. Had we been told we'd have to take a test ahead of time, we would've prepared. Had we prepared, we would've passed. Had we passed, I wouldn't be sitting here complaining about it. However, after having seen some of the test answers, we began to question the common sense of Ohio lawmakers. I mean seriously, seatbelts aren't required for backseat passengers? Isn't that typically where children ride? Maybe 7 year olds are encouraged to get behind the wheel, leaving backseats vacant most of the time. If these are my new driving laws, I'm not sure I want to follow them. Shortly after leaving the DMV, we got caught behind an elderly woman in a parking lot. Backing out of her space, she came within inches of hitting another car before performing the world's first 12-point turn. By the time she reached the main road, I was half-asleep. This woman had managed to obtain her license, but we failed on the basis of a computer test? Could Old Lady Magoo even see the computer screen? I guess I'm gonna have to teach these Ohioans how to drive safely. A scarier truth has never been spoken.