Round 2

I’m giddy with anticipation, as tonight opens what could be one of the best NBA finals of all-time (T-minus 23 hours until tip-off). Honestly, I can’t remember the last time the NBA finals featured two teams this evenly matched. It rarely happens and on those rare instances when it does, the teams involved usually bore me to tears (think ’05 Spurs vs. Pistons or ’94 Rockets vs. Knicks). But 2010 promises to be good at a minimum, great in probability, with potential for a real classic. When Boston faced L.A. in 2008, I came up with a list of 17 legitimate reasons (for #17 of course) why the Celtics would win and it honestly wasn’t all that difficult. The media backed the flashier Lakers as they usually do, even though anyone who knows basketball should’ve seen their demise coming. The ’08 Celtics were tougher, smarter, and hungrier than the ’08 Lakers, not to mention far better defensively. But the teams have changed since then. This Lakers squad is easily the best of their last three, all of which reached the finals (the ’09 team easily conquering a relatively weak Orlando team). The addition of Ron Artest has paid off (count me among the initially skeptical) and Pau Gasol is for my money one of the league’s most improved players. This Celtics team may or may not be as good as their 2008 title team, which sounds ludicrous (they limped unheralded into the playoffs) until you consider the fact that nobody has beaten these guys when completely healthy. And while a few of their key players have lost a step, the emergence of Rajon Rondo as the most destructive force throughout the playoffs will ultimately secure the legacy of this group in team history. While admittedly tough to write an unbiased prediction for the series, I have enough integrity to distance myself from an often blind passion for the C’s. So consider the following as fact, as well as what every prognosticator in the country SHOULD be thinking as I break this series down.

All season I’ve heard about how long the Lakers big men are, how skilled they are, and how they’ve caused huge match up problems for everyone they’ve faced. Well most of that is true, until now, because the Celtics are the only team in the NBA that matches their length. Sure Andrew Bynum is big and bulky, has some ability, and is not quite a poor man’s Dwight Howard, who if memory serves was relatively held in check by none other than Kendrick Perkins. Perkins isn’t on the level of Howard or Bynum or maybe even an aging Shaq, but he’s rock solid, knows how to use his body, and understands his limitations. He’s a terrific rebounder, blocks the occasional shot, and refuses to back down. I see no reason Perk doesn’t hold Bynum to 12pts and 7 boards a game in this series. As for Gasol, he is very, very good but in Kevin Garnett the C’s have the league’s only answer. He’s just as tall as the goofy Spaniard, lean and quick, with equally strong hands and footwork. KG remains the more physical of the two and although Gasol has hardened since ’08, not to mention logged far fewer minutes over the course of his career, a few patented shrieks of insanity from the Big Ticket brings this contest to a draw. Furthermore, the C’s possess an edge on the bench here. Rasheed Wallace will probably continue his Jekyll & Hyde act but could prove a major factor on both ends. He’s long enough to bother Gasol on defense and shoots well enough to pull him away from the paint on the other end. Glen Davis adds bulk and a surprising ability to finish around the basket. He’s the team’s most improved player this season. Luke Walton isn’t big enough to deal with either player. L.A.’s most reliable bench option is Lamar Odom, who will probably play every frontcourt position at one point or another but will see most of his minutes trying to help on KG and Paul Pierce. He could conceivably win a game for L.A. in the finals, but will be a complete no-show in at least one or two others. Odom is what he is, a versatile position player who can provide instant offense and rebound if the mood strikes, but can’t be counted on from night-to-night; he’s a bizarro world Rashard Lewis if you will.

The perimeter features the best offensive players in the series. Pierce had a strong series against Orlando, including a climactic game 6 with 31 points and 13 boards. He can’t fill the box-score every night anymore, but he probably doesn’t have to. But he does need to hold his ground against Artest, who’s given him fits in the past. However, those were mainly issues of maturity on both ends. The Detroit brawler won’t be pulling down the Truth’s pants in the finals and even if he did, Pierce has reached the stage in his career where he can laugh it off rather than bitch to the refs or hold a press conference wearing a head bandage that makes it look like he just fought Tyson. Artest has never been as good as player as Pierce, but he’s even more physical and is one of the few players in the league who can spark a team with his defense. He can shoot from the outside and uses his body well on crafty drives with either hand. Despite remaining as big a nut job as Sheed, I think Artest realizes how important he is to the Lakers in this series and will bring his “A” game. He’s familiar with Pierce on offense, but fortunately for the Celtics their captain is one of the few in the game who can score from any angle on the court. Odom will provide different looks when Artest rests. The key for Pierce will be staying out of foul trouble and avoiding confrontation. At worst small forward is a draw for Boston and at best it’s a significant strength.

The one spot on the floor L.A. holds a clear advantage is the 2-spot, with all-world talent Kobe Bryant gunning for his 5th ring. I’ve been more impressed with Kobe this playoff run than in many sensational previous ones. He just has a better feel for his team it seems. That said he’s going to be kept on his toes the whole series. Ray Allen is playing as well as he has since leaving Seattle and Kobe won’t be able to take any breaks on D. As good as he’s been playing, neither Kobe nor Phil Jackson wants a shoot-out against the artist formerly known as Jesus Shuttlesworth. Tony Allen has been a huge spark off the bench for Boston this postseason and will play an important role in holding Kobe at key times down the stretch. Two years ago one of the big reasons the Lakers lost was that they didn’t have the best player in the series (in practice, not on paper). Kobe knows Pierce outplayed him in 2008 and will be looking for revenge. Only this time his biggest obstacle may be playing a different position.

Rajon Rondo IS the deciding factor in this series assuming he’s healthy (I am knocking the shit out of T’s wooden computer desk at this moment). This isn’t even debatable. He’s is the Celtic’s fastest, most unstoppable, and indispensable player. He runs the offense and may now be the key to starting their defense, wreaking havoc in the open floor. There are maybe 2 or 3 point guards in the league who can go toe-to-toe with Rondo these days and Derek Fisher is not one of them. I’ve always respected Fisher and think he’s one of the best glue-guys of the last 15 years, but he’s out of his depth with Rondo, who could probably run a suicide in the time it takes Fisher to set up for a three. How about the bench options for L.A.? Shannon Brown? Jordan Farmer? Please. (However, I must admit I’d react the same way were Nate Robinson their backup, so nothing is 100%). L.A. may have no choice but to stick Kobe on Rondo for extended stretches, but if Cleveland decided against this strategy with Lebron James, I don’t see Phil getting too radical here. The questions about Rondo’s health do concern me and it would seem tragic if he were to falter just as the KG, Pierce, & Ray have regained their stride. But I think he’ll be fine. If he can bounce back from a mega-blow from D. Howard, he can do anything. L.A.’s one wild card (should Phil start sniffing glue) would be to throw Artest on Rondo, but that’s a last resort that would come only if they lose the 1st two at home. And then he’d be left looking for answers for Pierce.

Another favorable break for Boston is the fact that coaching generally doesn’t win an NBA championship series, though for what it’s worth I’ve grown comfortable to the point of having 70% confidence in Doc Rivers (that’s a huge step-up from a couple seasons ago). He also brings worlds more class to the proceedings than Captain psycho-babble. Phil Jackson’s approach has proven hugely successful for years, but in truth he’s not an X’s and O’s guy. In many ways his impact on this team is a thing of the past. He helped get them here, controlled the team egos, and now understands that his team’s opponent is a veteran club who will be ready for anything. The Lakers will not be pushing anybody around and will likely only go so far as Kobe takes them. Doc takes a much more hands-on approach, which admittedly goes both ways, although to his credit many of his play calls throughout the last several months have really impressed me, both in design and execution. I’m fine with the coaching battle.

So what are we left with? On-court match ups favor Boston by virtue of Rondo, unless Kobe scores 45 a game (which isn’t impossible). Their defense is still better, although L.A. has improved greatly in that regard. Both teams play exceptionally well on the road, so the Lakers home court advantage isn’t much of a factor. Boston has the more passionate fan-base. What’s more, Boston has faced a tougher road to the finals, which many seem to be forgetting. The 2010 Western Conference was a pale imitation of past seasons. There were undoubtedly a higher number of solid teams out west, but the Mavericks, Spurs, Jazz, & Suns all would’ve been underdogs to the Cavs, Magic, or a healthy Celtics squad. The Lakers had cruised until Phoenix started scoring a bit, while the C’s had to battle 3 of the league’s 5 best players on their trip to the finals.

What’s more, everyone outside of California seems to be pulling for Boston which I find amusing. I have customers coming up to me, presumed Cleveland fans no less, saying that while they are upset the Cavs are done, they hate the Lakers more and will definitely be rooting for Boston. Call me old fashioned, but I don’t think I could root for the team that destroyed my whole season and possibly my city’s entire basketball future. I enjoy being considered (foolish though it is) a slight underdog to these Lakers and would be significantly more petrified if we were the dominant favorites. These Celtics relish that opportunity, particularly the veterans and Pierce, who I’m convinced circles the calendar date of every opportunity he gets to play in Los Angeles, his hometown. Pierce has had an up-and-down postseason, but that’s to be expected chasing Lebron one series then abusing Vince Carter the next. History is as much on the line for these Celtics as it is for Kobe’s legacy. And while I rarely bet against Kobe in a big series, he hasn’t shown he can beat a great finals opponent yet even with Shaq (He has no control over his opponent, but still). This is arguably the most momentous test of his career and while he remains the best player in the finals, there are at least 8 players who could conceivably make or break this series. I’ll take the Big 4 in green.

CELTICS in 6!!!

A final capper: I almost always agree with Tim Legler, who knows his facts and seems like he could talk intelligent basketball for hours. He’s become the most underrated ex-player turned reliable analyst in the sport’s history. The most famous member of that group, the endlessly entertaining Charles Barkley, rarely predicts the correct outcome, though his natural charisma draws thousands to his cause. Listening to his radio interview with Dan Patrick Thursday morning brought a smile to my face.

Official 2010 Finals Predictions –

Legler: Celtics
Barkley: Lakers

I feel good (Though I’m pretending I never heard Reggie pick Boston on PTI last week. Jeez, I don’t even like writing that. Scratch it from your memory. He must play no part in this contest. Let’s enjoy the finals)!